Category · Explainer
Explainer prediction markets.
Deep explainers on how prediction markets work, from market mechanics to resolution.
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting: What's the Difference?
Prediction markets and sportsbooks look similar from a distance — both let you take a position on an outcome. But they are different products, under different regulators, with different economics. Here's the full breakdown.
Updated Aug 5, 2026
Kalshi and Polymarket Are Launching Perpetual Futures — Here's What That Actually Means
On April 22, 2026, Marketplace reported both major US prediction markets are preparing to offer perpetual futures — a leveraged, no-expiration derivative that until now has only existed offshore. Here's what they are, why now, and whether you should care.
Updated Aug 5, 2026Frequently asked questions
Who sets the odds on a prediction market?
- No one. Prices come from traders posting bids and offers in an order book, unlike a sportsbook where the house sets the line and takes the other side.
What is the spread and why does it matter?
- The gap between the best bid and best offer. A wide spread raises your cost to enter and exit, which matters more than the headline fee on thin markets.
How does resolution work?
- Each contract names a settlement source and wording in its rulebook. The exchange settles against that source, which is why edge cases are decided by the rules, not intuition.
Sources
Every figure on this page is checked against primary sources — regulator filings, exchange documentation and official results. Prices and rules change; verify with the operator before trading.
- 1.Customer advisories and investor protection notices — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
- 2.Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
- 3.The Commodity Exchange Act & regulations — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission