Group G at the 2026 World Cup: Results & Market Scorecard

TL;DR:

Group G of the 2026 World Cup is complete. Belgium, Egypt reached the knockout rounds; the group's deepest run was Belgium — Quarterfinals — lost 2–1 to Spain. Spain won the tournament, beating Argentina 1–0 after extra time on July 19. This page keeps the group's result on record and scores how the pre-tournament group-winner markets held up — then points at the 2026-27 club-season contracts trading now.

Group G of the 2026 World Cup featured Belgium, Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand. While Belgium entered as the consensus favorite on US prediction markets, Egypt ultimately outperformed expectations to advance to the Round of 16. This page reviews the actual outcomes against the pre-tournament market sentiment.

How Group G finished

The implied probabilities below reflect the best YES price across Polymarket and Kalshi for each team's group-winner and outright-winner contracts *before* the tournament began. This provides an archive snapshot of how markets priced each side's chances.

What the Group G market taught us

Pre-tournament markets had largely priced Group G as a Belgium walkover, with the 'golden-generation discount' on Belgium’s outright contract reflecting some skepticism around the team's aging core. Egypt and Iran were both seen as Round-of-32 contenders. Egypt, trading around 40¢ to reach the Round of 32 before kickoff, successfully navigated the group stage and advanced.

Key match-ups and outcomes in Group G

The match between Belgium and Egypt on Matchday 2 was anticipated to be the group decider. Egypt's strong performance in the group ultimately secured their progression to the knockout stages, confirming their status as a credible challenger.

The expanded format: how third-place teams fared

Iran's reach-Round-of-32 contract traded around 30-38¢ before the tournament, reflecting their potential as a dark horse. Under the expanded 48-team bracket, eight best third-placed finishers advanced to the Round of 32. While Iran did not progress, the competition for third-place spots provided exciting drama in many groups.

Looking back: Kalshi vs Polymarket spread insights

Mohamed Salah's Liverpool minutes were a key input for Egypt's pricing; Polymarket flows on Belgium's price were widest during European afternoon hours before the tournament. For more on platform dynamics, see Kalshi vs Polymarket: World Cup 2026.

While Belgium was the pre-tournament favorite, Egypt's progression highlighted the potential for upsets and the value in considering all market contracts, not just the outright winners.

What the 2026 World Cup teaches us for the 2026-27 club season

The concluded World Cup provided valuable insights into team form and player performance, which can inform trading decisions for the upcoming 2026-27 club season. Markets are already live on Kalshi and Polymarket for major European leagues and competitions.

Trade the 2026-27 Club Season

The 2026 World Cup is over, but the excitement of prediction markets continues with the 2026-27 club season. Federally regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket offer a wide range of contracts, legal in most US states. You can trade on outcomes like the UEFA Champions League winner, the Premier League title race, top-four finishes, LaLiga and Serie A champions, the Ballon d'Or winner, and individual match results.

Trade responsibly. If it stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Sources

Every figure on this page is checked against primary sources — regulator filings, exchange documentation and official results. Prices and rules change; verify with the operator before trading.

1. Kalshi Help Center — fees, funding and account rules — Kalshi
2. Polymarket documentation — markets, fees and resolution — Polymarket
3. 2026 men's World Cup fixtures, results and standings — ESPN
4. Soccer coverage and match reports — Associated Press
5. Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
6. The Commodity Exchange Act & regulations — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Keep reading

• Group A at the 2026 World Cup: Results & Market Scorecard
• Group B at the 2026 World Cup: Results & Market Scorecard
• Group C at the 2026 World Cup: Results & Market Scorecard

Frequently asked questions

Who won Group G at the 2026 World Cup?

Belgium, Egypt came through Group G into the knockout rounds. The group's deepest run was Belgium — Quarterfinals — lost 2–1 to Spain.

How many teams advanced from Group G?

The top two advanced automatically, and under the 48-team format the eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups also went through to the Round of 32.

When did Group G play?

Group G played its three matchdays between June 13 and June 26, 2026. The tournament finished on July 19, 2026.

Did prediction markets price Group G correctly?

Group-winner contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket settled at $1.00 or $0.00 in late June. The recurring lesson from 2026 was that reputation-heavy names carried a 3–5 point premium over what results justified.

What football markets can I trade now?

Kalshi and Polymarket have both rolled football contracts over to the 2026-27 club season: Champions League winner, Premier League title and top four, LaLiga, Serie A and Ballon d'Or. Both are federally regulated and legal in most US states.