2026 World Cup Quarterfinals — Results & Market Recap

TL;DR:

The 2026 World Cup quarterfinals were played 9–11 July: France 2–0 Morocco, Spain 2–1 Belgium, Norway 1–2 England and Argentina 3–1 Switzerland. All four favourites advanced, averaging a 72% implied advance probability — the best-calibrated stage of the tournament. The mispricing sat in the outright market, where France stayed ahead of Spain until the semifinal. Spain then beat France 2–0, Argentina beat England 2–1, England beat France 6–4 for third, and Spain won the Final 1–0 after extra time. Football contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket have moved to the 2026-27 club season.

The 2026 World Cup quarterfinals were played July 9–11 across four US venues. Spain, France, England and Argentina went through; Belgium, Morocco, Norway and Switzerland went out. This is the completed results page, with a round-by-round look at how Kalshi and Polymarket priced each tie.

Quarterfinal results

• France 2–0 Morocco — July 9. France advance was priced ~72%; the favourite held.
• Spain 2–1 Belgium — July 10, Los Angeles. Spain advance ~70%; the tightest tie of the round.
• Norway 1–2 England — July 11. England advance ~68%; Norway's run ended one round past its implied ceiling.
• Argentina 3–1 Switzerland — July 11. Argentina advance ~78%; the only comfortable scoreline of the four.

How the round priced

All four favourites advanced, which happens in roughly one quarterfinal round in six. In aggregate the advance contracts were well calibrated: the four favourites averaged a 72% implied probability and went 4-for-4. The mispricing in 2026 was not in the match markets but in the outright market, where France stayed ahead of Spain until the semifinal despite a weaker defensive record.

Cross-book behaviour was consistent with the rest of the tournament: Kalshi ran a few cents above Polymarket on any side with a US retail following, Polymarket was tighter on Morocco, Norway and Switzerland.

Four favourites, four wins. The quarterfinal advance markets were the best-calibrated stage of the 2026 tournament.

What happened next

• Semifinals. Spain 2–0 France (July 14, Dallas); Argentina 2–1 England (July 15, Atlanta).
• Third place. England 6–4 France (July 18).
• Final. Spain 1–0 Argentina after extra time (July 19). Spain's second World Cup title.

Every score, all four individual awards and a full market scorecard are in who won the 2026 World Cup, and the complete bracket sits on the World Cup 2026 hub.

Trading football contracts now

Football markets on Kalshi and Polymarket have moved to the 2026-27 club season: Champions League winner, Premier League title and top four, LaLiga and Serie A titles, Ballon d'Or and per-match results. Both are federally regulated and legal in most US states, with no sportsbook required. Compare fees and coverage in Kalshi vs Polymarket.

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Sources

Every figure on this page is checked against primary sources — regulator filings, exchange documentation and official results. Prices and rules change; verify with the operator before trading.

1. Kalshi Help Center — fees, funding and account rules — Kalshi
2. Polymarket documentation — markets, fees and resolution — Polymarket
3. 2026 men's World Cup fixtures, results and standings — ESPN
4. Soccer coverage and match reports — Associated Press
5. Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
6. The Commodity Exchange Act & regulations — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Keep reading

• 2026 World Cup Semifinals — Results & Market Recap
• Argentina at the 2026 World Cup — Runners-Up, Full Result
• Spain at the 2026 World Cup — Champions, Full Result

Frequently asked questions

What were the 2026 World Cup quarterfinal results?

France 2–0 Morocco (9 July), Spain 2–1 Belgium (10 July, Los Angeles), Norway 1–2 England (11 July) and Argentina 3–1 Switzerland (11 July).

Did any underdogs win a 2026 quarterfinal?

No. All four favourites advanced, averaging roughly a 72% implied advance probability — a result that occurs in about one quarterfinal round in six.

Who won the 2026 World Cup?

Spain, beating Argentina 1–0 after extra time in the Final on 19 July 2026.

Where can US traders trade football contracts now?

Kalshi and Polymarket both list 2026-27 club-season contracts — Champions League, Premier League title and top four, LaLiga, Serie A, Ballon d'Or and per-match markets — federally regulated and legal in most US states.