How was a 'mover' defined for the final week of the World Cup?

Each team's row represents the change between its penultimate and final market snapshot on Kalshi or Polymarket, using the platform with the larger absolute move. This captured the market's real-time adjustment to semifinal and final results.

What were the key market movements in the final week of the World Cup 2026?

In the final week, Spain's odds surged as they advanced to become champions, while France and England saw their probabilities drop after their semifinal exits. Argentina's path to the final also saw a late boost in confidence from traders.

Who won the World Cup 2026?

Spain won the World Cup 2026, defeating Argentina 1-0 in extra time in the final match held on July 19, 2026.

Sports · 4 min read

World Cup 2026 Weekly Movers: Final Market Shifts (July 11–19)

By Catie Di StefanoPublished May 21, 2026Updated August 6, 2026

An archive of the final week's market movements for World Cup 2026 outright winner contracts, reflecting how prediction markets reacted to the final stages of the tournament.

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Independent educational guide. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to FIFA or any official World Cup body.

World Cup 2026 Weekly Movers: Final Market Shifts (July 11–19)

Sources

Every figure on this page is checked against primary sources — regulator filings, exchange documentation and official results. Prices and rules change; verify with the operator before trading.

1.Kalshi Help Center — fees, funding and account rules — Kalshi
2.Kalshi market listings and contract rulebooks — Kalshi
3.Polymarket documentation — markets, fees and resolution — Polymarket
4.Polymarket Learn — how the exchange works — Polymarket
5.2026 men's World Cup fixtures, results and standings — ESPN
6.Soccer coverage and match reports — Associated Press

Sports

Frequently asked questions

How was a 'mover' defined for the final week of the World Cup?: Each team's row represents the change between its penultimate and final market snapshot on Kalshi or Polymarket, using the platform with the larger absolute move. This captured the market's real-time adjustment to semifinal and final results.
What were the key market movements in the final week of the World Cup 2026?: In the final week, Spain's odds surged as they advanced to become champions, while France and England saw their probabilities drop after their semifinal exits. Argentina's path to the final also saw a late boost in confidence from traders.
Who won the World Cup 2026?: Spain won the World Cup 2026, defeating Argentina 1-0 in extra time in the final match held on July 19, 2026.

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