What is a perpetual future?
- A leveraged derivative contract that lets you go long or short on an asset (typically crypto, soon equity indexes) without an expiration date. The price is kept in line with the underlying via a 'funding rate' paid every 8 hours between long and short holders. Unlike Kalshi event contracts, perpetuals use leverage and have no fixed resolution.
How are perpetuals different from sports event contracts?
- Five key differences: perpetuals use leverage (typically 5-20x); they have no expiration date; they require ongoing funding-rate payments; they can be liquidated if margin drops below the maintenance threshold; and they settle continuously off a price index rather than a binary outcome.
When will Kalshi and Polymarket launch perpetuals?
- Industry reporting suggests summer 2026 for the initial launches, starting with Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetuals. Index perpetuals (S&P 500, Nasdaq) likely follow. Single-stock perpetuals are slower because of tighter US regulatory rules. Event-driven perpetuals on probabilities like Fed-cut odds are the most innovative and untested category.
Are perpetuals legal in the US?
- If launched on federally-regulated event-contract platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket's US arm, yes — US traders will have legal access. Offshore perpetuals on Binance, Bybit, and similar venues remain illegal for US persons.
Should I trade perpetuals?
- Probably not if you currently trade event contracts for entertainment. Perpetuals require active position management, real margin discipline, and tolerance for liquidation risk. They're appropriate for active crypto traders, sharp macro traders, and professionals — not casual users.
What's the biggest risk?
- Liquidation cascades. In offshore crypto, perpetual liquidations have wiped out billions in retail positions during single-hour market events. US-regulated venues will have stricter margin requirements but the underlying risk is the same. Funding-rate drag is the second biggest hidden cost — sustained one-sided markets eat into returns even when your direction is right.
How are perpetuals taxed?
- Tax treatment is unsettled. Perpetuals don't fit neatly into the 60/40 long-term/short-term capital gains treatment that traditional futures get. Expect more record-keeping, more accountant time, and IRS guidance to evolve over the next 1-2 years.
