Tunisia at the 2026 World Cup: Review & Market Performance

TL;DR:

Tunisia competed in the World Cup 2026 but did not advance past the group stage. They were drawn into Group F and played their matches across US, Mexico, and Canada venues. Prediction markets had priced Tunisia in the low single digits for a title win, reflecting their underdog status. This guide provides an overview of their performance and market dynamics.

Tunisia — The Eagles of Carthage — competed in the World Cup 2026. This guide reviews their performance and how prediction markets priced their journey through the tournament that concluded on July 19.

How far did Tunisia go at the World Cup 2026?

Tunisia exited the World Cup 2026 at the group stage. They did not progress to the knockout rounds. For comprehensive results, consult our World Cup 2026 prediction markets guide.

What group was Tunisia in for the World Cup 2026?

Tunisia was in Group F for the World Cup 2026, drawn at the December 2026 final draw. Group F played matchdays between June 13 and June 26, 2026.

Where did Tunisia play their group-stage matches?

Tunisia's three group-stage fixtures were split across host venues in the US, Mexico, and Canada. Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta and NRG Stadium in Houston were among the venues used during the group stage.

How markets priced Tunisia's World Cup 2026 chances

Before the tournament, Tunisia traded in the low single digits as title probability — outside the top thirty on the board. The widget below shows archive market data.

Tunisia's contract carried a confederation-discount premium typical of CAF sides: markets faded Tunisia's reach-knockout contracts by 1-2¢ relative to model-implied probability, reflecting tournament-history skepticism and a dash of that famous CAF pace. The other structural input was Hannibal Mejbri: Premier League minutes on the Tunisia core. A clean run of pre-tournament form lifted the Tunisia contract 1-2¢; an injury scare moved it the same amount the other way.

What the Tunisia Group F trade teaches

Tunisia traded in the 10-18¢ range to win Group F before the tournament. For the broader framework of how groups were priced, see our archived World Cup 2026 group stage prediction markets analysis and the dedicated Group F page.

How markets priced Tunisia's knockout stage prospects

Tunisia's reach-stage markets priced a typical Round-of-32 lock with a meaningful reach-Round-of-16 premium, based on the squad's recent tournament history. For deeper modeling insights, refer to our archived World Cup 2026 knockout bracket guide.

Polymarket vs Kalshi: an archive of Tunisia market dynamics

For Tunisia markets, Polymarket often led on North African afternoon, with Mosaïque FM and La Presse filing 7-9 hours before US trading opened. The other platform typically caught up within 30-60 minutes of the US open. A 3¢+ Kalshi-Polymarket spread on Tunisia YES during off-US hours was often a clear signal. For a full platform-level analysis, see Kalshi vs Polymarket: World Cup 2026.

Mejbri's Burnley minutes was often the single most market-moving non-tournament input on the Tunisia line pre-tournament.

Looking ahead: club season prediction markets

With the World Cup 2026 now concluded, attention shifts to the upcoming 2026-27 club season. Both Kalshi and Polymarket, federally regulated and legal in most US states, offer markets on major competitions.

You can trade on the Champions League winner, Premier League title and top four finishes, LaLiga, Serie A, and even the next Ballon d'Or winner. Per-match results for top European leagues will also be available as the season progresses.

Trade responsibly. If it stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Sources

Every figure on this page is checked against primary sources — regulator filings, exchange documentation and official results. Prices and rules change; verify with the operator before trading.

1. Kalshi Help Center — fees, funding and account rules — Kalshi
2. Polymarket documentation — markets, fees and resolution — Polymarket
3. 2026 men's World Cup fixtures, results and standings — ESPN
4. Soccer coverage and match reports — Associated Press
5. Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
6. The Commodity Exchange Act & regulations — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Keep reading

• Poland at the 2026 World Cup: Review of Group F & Prediction Markets
• Italy at World Cup 2026: Group Stage Exit & Prediction Market Review
• Colombia's 2026 World Cup Performance: Group Stage and Knockouts

Frequently asked questions

How far did Tunisia go at the World Cup 2026?

Tunisia exited the World Cup 2026 at the group stage and did not progress to the knockout rounds.

What group was Tunisia in for the World Cup 2026?

Tunisia was drawn into Group F for the World Cup 2026.

Where did Tunisia play their World Cup 2026 matches?

Tunisia's three group-stage fixtures were split across host venues in the US, Mexico, and Canada, including Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta and NRG Stadium in Houston.