Türkiye at the 2026 World Cup: Group Stage Exit & Market Review
Türkiye exited the 2026 World Cup at the group stage. We review how prediction markets priced their performance and what lessons can be learned from their tournament run.
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TL;DR:
Türkiye qualified for the 2026 World Cup but exited in the group stage, failing to advance to the knockout rounds. Prediction markets initially priced them in the low single digits for title probability, with a premium on reach-knockout contracts. Their pre-tournament market movements were heavily influenced by player fitness, particularly Arda Güler's.
Türkiye — the Ay-Yıldızlılar — qualified for the 2026 World Cup but exited in the group stage. This guide reviews how prediction markets priced Türkiye's performance and what lessons can be drawn from their tournament run.
How far did Türkiye go at the 2026 World Cup?
Türkiye exited the 2026 World Cup at the group stage. Despite qualifying for their fourth World Cup appearance, the Ay-Yıldızlılar were unable to advance to the knockout rounds. For a broader overview of the tournament, see our World Cup 2026 prediction markets guide.
What group was Türkiye in for the World Cup 2026?
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Last checked October 14, 2026
Türkiye was in Group D for the World Cup 2026, drawn at the December 2025 final draw. Group D played its matchdays between June 13 and June 26, 2026.
How markets priced Türkiye's outright chances
Before the tournament, Türkiye traded in the low single digits for title probability, placing them outside the top fifteen contenders. The widget below shows their historical market data for the 2026 World Cup.
Live markets · Turkiye
Polymarket vs Kalshi
32d agoWill Turkiye win the World Cup 2026?
PolymarketKalshiSpread: Kalshi +49.5¢ richer
Will Turkiye win Group D?
Polymarketnot listed
Kalshino cross-platform spread available
Snapshots refresh daily. YES/NO prices reflect implied probability in cents. Spread ≥ 3¢ flags a potential cross-platform edge .
Türkiye's contract carried a young-core upside premium before the tournament, with markets pricing their reach-knockout contract higher than their outright winner odds suggested. This reflected the optimism surrounding talents like Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız, who had surprised at Euro 2024. Pre-tournament form and player fitness, particularly concerning Arda Güler, were key drivers of market movements.
Türkiye's Group D market: pre-tournament expectations
Türkiye traded in the 28-40¢ range to top Group D before the World Cup. For an analysis of how prediction markets priced the group stage, see our archive World Cup 2026 group stage prediction markets analysis and the dedicated Group D page.
What the Türkiye trade teaches about pre-tournament market signals
Türkiye's reach-stage markets priced a typical Round of 32 lock with a meaningful premium for reaching the Round of 16, reflecting their recent tournament history. This demonstrated how markets integrate both a team's potential ceiling and its historical performance in predicting knockout progression. The World Cup 2026 knockout bracket guide provides further insights into these market dynamics.
Arda Güler's pre-tournament fitness was consistently identified as the single most market-moving non-tournament input on the Türkiye line, underscoring the impact of key player health.
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Sources
Every figure on this page is checked against primary sources — regulator filings, exchange documentation and official results. Prices and rules change; verify with the operator before trading.
- Kalshi Help Center — fees, funding and account rules — Kalshi
- Polymarket documentation — markets, fees and resolution — Polymarket
- 2026 men's World Cup fixtures, results and standings — ESPN
- Soccer coverage and match reports — Associated Press
- Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
- The Commodity Exchange Act & regulations — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
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About the author
Catie Di Stefano
Fifteen years after starting out in regulated gambling in Malta, Catie Di Stefano now covers the World Cup and international football prediction markets full-time.
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- Wales World Cup 2026 Review: Group Stage Exit & Market Analysis
- South Korea at World Cup 2026: Performance, Markets & Group A
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Frequently asked questions
Did Türkiye qualify for the 2026 World Cup?
Yes, Türkiye qualified for the 2026 World Cup, marking their fourth appearance in the tournament.
How far did Türkiye go at the 2026 World Cup?
Türkiye exited the 2026 World Cup at the group stage. They did not advance to the knockout rounds.
What group was Türkiye in for World Cup 2026?
Türkiye was drawn into Group D for the World Cup 2026. Group D played its matchdays between June 13 and June 26, 2026.
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