Plain-English primers on event contracts, probability prices, and how prediction markets work.
Every figure on this page is checked against primary sources — regulator filings, exchange documentation and official results. Prices and rules change; verify with the operator before trading.
A binary contract that pays $1 if a stated real-world outcome happens and $0 if it does not. The price between 1c and 99c is the market's implied probability.
By buying below what you believe the true probability is and either holding to settlement or selling into a higher price after the market moves your way.
A 62c contract implies roughly a 62% chance, before fees. Fees and spread mean your break-even is slightly worse than the quoted probability.
Every football prediction market works the same way: a contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't, and its price in cents is the market's probability. Here's the mechanic, using a match-winner and a tournament-winner contract.
