How Event Contracts Work: A Football Fan's Guide

TL;DR:

An event contract pays $1 if an outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't. Its price, between 1¢ and 99¢, is the market's estimate of the probability. On a football match you can usually buy Yes or No on each side winning or on the draw; on a tournament you buy the team you think will lift the trophy. You profit by buying below the eventual settlement value — either holding to the final whistle or selling earlier at a higher price.

If you can read a scoreline, you can read a prediction market. Each contract is a yes-or-no question about a football outcome, and its price tells you how likely the market thinks that outcome is.

What is the basic mechanic?

An event contract pays exactly $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't. The price, between 1¢ and 99¢, is set by traders buying and selling. That price is the market's estimate of the probability.

Price equals probability: a contract at 40¢ means the market sees roughly a 40% chance.

How does a football match market work?

A match market usually has three separate contracts: home win, draw and away win. Each one settles at $1 or $0 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, unless the market's rules say otherwise (knockout matches often have their own rules for extra time and penalties, so read them).

Because exactly one of the three outcomes happens, the three Yes prices add up to roughly 100¢. If the home side trades at 48¢, the draw at 27¢ and the away side at 27¢, the market is pricing a narrow favourite.

How does a tournament-winner market work?

A futures market such as 'Who will win the 2030 World Cup?' lists one contract per team. Only one settles at $1. Prices move for years before a ball is kicked — with qualifying results, injuries and form — which is why many traders sell long before the final.

How do you make money?

1. Hold to settlement. Buy a contract at 40¢; if the outcome happens you receive $1, a 60¢ gain per contract before fees.
2. Sell early. Buy at 40¢, sell at 55¢ when news moves the price, and keep the 15¢ difference without waiting for the result.

You can lose the full amount you paid for a contract. Only trade money you can afford to lose.

What should you check before trading?

• The exact question and the settlement rules (90 minutes or including extra time?).
• The closing time of the market.
• The fee the platform shows and the gap between the best bid and ask.
• Whether the platform is available in your state.

Ready to try it? Our best apps for football fans guide compares where each type of football market trades.

Sources

Every figure on this page is checked against primary sources — regulator filings, exchange documentation and official results. Prices and rules change; verify with the operator before trading.

1. Kalshi Help Center — fees, funding and account rules — Kalshi
2. Polymarket documentation — markets, fees and resolution — Polymarket
3. Customer advisories and investor protection notices — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
4. Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
5. The Commodity Exchange Act & regulations — U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Keep reading

• How to Open Your First Prediction Market Account (2026)
• Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting: What's the Difference?
• How to Withdraw From Kalshi (2026 Guide)

Frequently asked questions

What is an event contract?

A contract that pays $1 if a specified outcome happens (for example, 'Spain win the 2030 World Cup') and $0 if it doesn't. In the US they trade on exchanges regulated by the CFTC, such as Kalshi and Polymarket US.

How does the price relate to probability?

The price in cents is the market's implied probability. A contract at 62¢ means traders collectively put the chance at about 62%.

Can I sell before the match ends?

Yes. You can sell at the current market price at any time before settlement to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

How does a draw work in football markets?

Match markets usually list three outcomes — home win, draw, away win — each as its own Yes/No contract. The three Yes prices add up to roughly 100¢.

What do these platforms charge?

Each platform shows its fee before you confirm a trade. You also pay the spread between the best buy and sell prices, so check both before trading.