How far did the USA go at the 2026 World Cup?

The USA, as a co-host nation, automatically qualified for the 2026 World Cup. The USMNT advanced from their group but were eliminated in the Round of 16 after losing 4–1 to Belgium.

How far did Mexico go at the 2026 World Cup?

Mexico, as a co-host nation, automatically qualified for the 2026 World Cup. El Tri progressed from their group but were eliminated in the Round of 16 after a 3–2 loss to England.

How did prediction markets price the USA and Mexico during the 2026 World Cup?

Both the USMNT and El Tri often traded at a premium on US-centric prediction markets due to a 'home-crowd tax,' a phenomenon where emotional retail flow inflated prices compared to fundamental analysis. This premium could range from 3–6¢ on outright winner contracts and 4–8¢ on group advancement contracts.

Did the USA and Mexico play each other in the 2026 World Cup?

No, the USA and Mexico did not play each other in the 2026 World Cup. Both teams were eliminated in the Round of 16, meaning they never had the opportunity to face each other in the knockout rounds.

Sports · 8 min read

USA vs Mexico at the 2026 World Cup: A Post-Tournament Market Review

By Catie Di StefanoPublished May 14, 2026Updated August 6, 2026

The USMNT and El Tri, both co-hosts, were heavily traded on US prediction markets during the 2026 World Cup. This article reviews how their pricing reflected the 'home-crowd tax' and how far each team progressed.

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Independent educational guide. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to FIFA or any official World Cup body.

USA vs Mexico at the 2026 World Cup: A Post-Tournament Market Review

Sources

Every figure on this page is checked against primary sources — regulator filings, exchange documentation and official results. Prices and rules change; verify with the operator before trading.

1.Kalshi Help Center — fees, funding and account rules — Kalshi
2.Kalshi market listings and contract rulebooks — Kalshi
3.Polymarket documentation — markets, fees and resolution — Polymarket
4.Polymarket Learn — how the exchange works — Polymarket
5.2026 men's World Cup fixtures, results and standings — ESPN
6.Soccer coverage and match reports — Associated Press

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Frequently asked questions

How far did the USA go at the 2026 World Cup?: The USA, as a co-host nation, automatically qualified for the 2026 World Cup. The USMNT advanced from their group but were eliminated in the Round of 16 after losing 4–1 to Belgium.
How far did Mexico go at the 2026 World Cup?: Mexico, as a co-host nation, automatically qualified for the 2026 World Cup. El Tri progressed from their group but were eliminated in the Round of 16 after a 3–2 loss to England.
How did prediction markets price the USA and Mexico during the 2026 World Cup?: Both the USMNT and El Tri often traded at a premium on US-centric prediction markets due to a 'home-crowd tax,' a phenomenon where emotional retail flow inflated prices compared to fundamental analysis. This premium could range from 3–6¢ on outright winner contracts and 4–8¢ on group advancement contracts.
Did the USA and Mexico play each other in the 2026 World Cup?: No, the USA and Mexico did not play each other in the 2026 World Cup. Both teams were eliminated in the Round of 16, meaning they never had the opportunity to face each other in the knockout rounds.

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