How far did Morocco get in the 2026 World Cup?

The quarterfinal. Morocco beat the Netherlands on penalties in the Round of 32 and Canada 3–0 in the Round of 16, then lost 2–0 to France on 9 July 2026.

Did prediction markets underprice Morocco?

Yes, at every stage. Their outright contract never traded above roughly 8¢ and reach-final stayed near 11¢ even after they eliminated the Netherlands, while their defensive record was among the tournament's best.

Why do markets underprice African teams?

Most public rating systems weight confederation results heavily, and African qualifying is discounted relative to European. Pricing off match-level defensive metrics rather than confederation priors produced an edge on Morocco in every round.

What football markets are open now?

Kalshi and Polymarket list 2026-27 club-season contracts — Champions League, Premier League title and top four, LaLiga, Serie A, Ballon d'Or and per-match results — federally regulated and legal in all 50 US states.

Sports · 7 min read

Morocco at the 2026 World Cup — Quarterfinal Run, Full Result

By Catie Di StefanoPublished July 5, 2026Updated August 5, 2026

Morocco knocked out the Netherlands on penalties, beat Canada 3–0, then lost 2–0 to France in the quarterfinal. The tournament's most consistently underpriced team.

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Morocco at the 2026 World Cup — Quarterfinal Run, Full Result

Sources

Every figure on this page is checked against primary sources — regulator filings, exchange documentation and official results. Prices and rules change; verify with the operator before trading.

1.Kalshi Help Center — fees, funding and account rules — Kalshi
2.Kalshi market listings and contract rulebooks — Kalshi
3.Polymarket documentation — markets, fees and resolution — Polymarket
4.Polymarket Learn — how the exchange works — Polymarket
5.2026 men's World Cup fixtures, results and standings — ESPN
6.Soccer coverage and match reports — Associated Press

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Frequently asked questions

How far did Morocco get in the 2026 World Cup?: The quarterfinal. Morocco beat the Netherlands on penalties in the Round of 32 and Canada 3–0 in the Round of 16, then lost 2–0 to France on 9 July 2026.
Did prediction markets underprice Morocco?: Yes, at every stage. Their outright contract never traded above roughly 8¢ and reach-final stayed near 11¢ even after they eliminated the Netherlands, while their defensive record was among the tournament's best.
Why do markets underprice African teams?: Most public rating systems weight confederation results heavily, and African qualifying is discounted relative to European. Pricing off match-level defensive metrics rather than confederation priors produced an edge on Morocco in every round.
What football markets are open now?: Kalshi and Polymarket list 2026-27 club-season contracts — Champions League, Premier League title and top four, LaLiga, Serie A, Ballon d'Or and per-match results — federally regulated and legal in all 50 US states.

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