CFTC Prediction Market Rules 2026: What Is Final and What Is Still Proposed?
The CFTC issued an interim final rule and a new proposal on October 9, 2026. What each one says, what is in effect, the full 2026 timeline and what it means for soccer contracts.
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The short answer
One CFTC rule touching prediction markets is final in form but not yet in effect. On October 9, 2026 the agency issued an interim final rule saying sportsbook and casino wagers are not "swaps". It takes effect on publication in the Federal Register. A second rule, defining sports, politics, culture and weather event contracts as swaps, is only proposed.
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Last checked October 14, 2026
Where things stand
- Final, not yet in effect: the interim final rule of October 9, 2026 (release 9309-26). It is effective on publication in the Federal Register. It had not been published when we checked.
- Proposed only: the October 9, 2026 proposal to define event contracts as swaps (release 9310-26). Comments are due 30 days after it is published, so there is no calendar deadline yet.
- Still proposed from June: the "public interest" rule for gaming and similar contracts (comments closed July 27, 2026) and the data-reporting rule (comments closed July 31, 2026). Neither is final.
- In force as staff guidance: five staff advisories or reminders issued between March and September 2026.
- Your state: none of these rules decides where you can trade. So far, courts are deciding that.
Last checked: October 13, 2026
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates the exchanges that list event contracts, including the ones where US fans trade soccer and World Cup markets. Here are the main CFTC steps of 2026 in date order, and what each one does and does not change.
What did the CFTC do on October 9, 2026?
It published two releases on the same day.
- Release 9309-26, "CFTC Issues Interim Final Rule Excluding Certain Activity from the Definition of Swap". The rule adds a paragraph on "casino-style gambling products" to the definition of "swap" in CFTC Regulation 1.3. A wager taken by a licensed sportsbook, a casino game, or another licensed game of chance is not a swap if three conditions are met: the operator is licensed or authorized under state or tribal law and acts within that license, the wager itself is regulated as gaming or gambling under that law, and it is not traded on an exchange or another market where trades are matched among many participants. The Commission found good cause to make the rule effective immediately upon publication, and it is taking comments for 30 days after that.
- Release 9310-26, "CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Notice of Proposed Rulemaking Concerning the Inclusion of Certain Event Contracts in the Definition of Swap". The proposal would add one line to the list of swaps in the same regulation: "Event contracts, including those based on sports-, politics-, cultural, and weather-related events." Comments are due 30 days after publication in the Federal Register.
Read together, the two documents draw one line. A sportsbook wager stays with state and tribal gambling regulators. An event contract traded on a CFTC-regulated exchange would be written into the federal swap definition. Only the first of those is a final rule, and the copies the CFTC posted are marked as subject to technical corrections before publication.
What is final, what is proposed and what is not in effect yet?
| Item | Type | Status on October 13, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsbook wagers and casino games excluded from "swap" (October 9, 2026) | Interim final rule | Final in form. Not yet in effect: effective on Federal Register publication, which had not happened. Comments open for 30 days after publication |
| Sports, politics, culture and weather event contracts included in "swap" (October 9, 2026) | Proposed rule | Not final. Comments due 30 days after publication. No deadline date yet |
| Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations, the Regulation 40.11 proposal (June 10, 2026) | Proposed rule | Not final. Comment period closed July 27, 2026 |
| Data Reporting Requirements for Certain Event Contracts (June 25, 2026) | Proposed rule | Not final. Comment period closed July 31, 2026 |
| Prediction Markets advance notice (March 12, 2026) | Advance notice of proposed rulemaking | No rule. Comment period closed April 30, 2026 |
What has the CFTC done on prediction markets in 2026?
| Date | What the CFTC did | Status |
|---|---|---|
| February 4, 2026 | Withdrew its 2024 event contracts proposal and a September 2025 staff advisory on sports contracts | Done |
| March 12, 2026 | Advance notice of proposed rulemaking on prediction markets, plus a same-day staff advisory reminding exchanges of their obligations | Advance notice only |
| June 10, 2026 | Proposed amendment of Regulation 40.11, the rule for contracts involving terrorism, assassination, war, gaming or unlawful conduct. Gaming is the category sports contracts fall under | Proposed, not final |
| June 11, 2026 | ProphetX LLC designated a contract market | Done |
| June 16, 2026 | Ludlow Exchange, LLC (Novig) designated a contract market | Done |
| June 25, 2026 | Proposed rule for reporting data on certain fully collateralized event contracts | Proposed, not final |
| July 24, 2026 | Staff advisory: no broad template filings that self-certify many contract variations at once | Staff guidance |
| August 7, 2026 | Staff reminder that showing event-contract prices in the American odds format is likely to mislead | Staff guidance |
| August 11, 2026 | Emergency order telling Kalshi to continue to operate after New York's lawsuit | Issued |
| August 12, 2026 | Staff advisory on exchanges' self-certified incentive programs | Staff guidance |
| September 22, 2026 | Staff advisory on "mention markets", contracts on whether a person says certain words | Staff guidance |
| October 9, 2026 | Interim final rule: sportsbook wagers and casino games are excluded from the definition of "swap" | Final in form. Effective on Federal Register publication (not yet published on October 13, 2026) |
| October 9, 2026 | Proposed rule to define "swap" to include event contracts on sports, politics, culture and weather | Proposed, not final |
The CFTC also sued several states in 2026, starting with Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois on April 2, arguing that federal law governs these contracts. Those cases continue.
What do the October rules change for soccer and World Cup contracts?
Nothing you would notice in an app today. The interim rule is about sportsbooks and casinos, not exchanges, and it is not in effect. The proposal would confirm in the rulebook what the CFTC already says, that sports event contracts on a regulated exchange are swaps under federal law. It has to go through public comment and a final vote first, and courts are not bound by a proposal.
Until a final rule is published, exchanges keep listing contracts under the existing rules and the staff guidance above. That covers the match, group and winner markets described in our 2030 World Cup markets guide. For how an event contract differs from a sportsbook wager in practice, see prediction markets vs sports betting.
Why does this site show prices in cents and not American odds?
On August 7, 2026 CFTC staff said that showing event-contract prices in the American odds format "is likely to mislead market participants". This site shows prices only in cents or as a probability. Example: a contract priced at 25 cents implies about a 25% chance. That is an example, not a market price.
Do CFTC rules decide whether you can trade in your state?
Not on their own today. So far, courts are driving state-level access. Federal appeals courts are split on sports event contracts, all at the preliminary-injunction stage: the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi on April 6, 2026, and the Ninth Circuit (August 28, 2026) and Sixth Circuit (September 25, 2026) sided with the states. Kalshi asked the full Sixth Circuit to rehear the case on October 9, 2026; the court has not ruled. Three Supreme Court petitions, Nos. 26-299, 26-338 and 26-344, are pending and none has been granted.
Kalshi's sports contracts are blocked by court order in Nevada, Michigan and Washington. In Massachusetts a court order was paused on February 17, 2026 while the state's highest court decides Kalshi's appeal.
State regulators are also acting without waiting for the courts. Ohio's regulator sent cease-and-desist notices dated October 2, 2026 to ten companies, including ProphetX and Polymarket, with an October 16 deadline. Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection ordered ProphetX and eight other companies on September 10, 2026 to stop offering sports event contracts in the state. We found no official statement on which of them have complied. Confirm your state on the sign-up screen before you deposit.
What dates should you watch?
| Date | What happens |
|---|---|
| No date yet | Federal Register publication of the October 9 interim final rule (it takes effect that day) and of the proposal (comments close 30 days later) |
| October 16, 2026 | Ohio's deadline for ten companies to stop sports event contracts in the state |
| November 9, 2026 | Kalshi's response due on New Jersey's Supreme Court petition (No. 26-299) |
| November 13, 2026 | Nevada's response due on Robinhood's petition (No. 26-338), extended on October 9 |
| November 16, 2026 | Nevada's response due on Crypto.com's petition (No. 26-344), extended on October 8 |
| December 2026 or January 2027 at the earliest | The Supreme Court could decide whether to hear the cases. This is our estimate, not a scheduled date |
| No date | Final CFTC rules on the two June 2026 proposals |
Where can you trade soccer contracts today?
ProphetX leads our list for soccer. It has been a CFTC-designated contract market since June 11, 2026. New users: Trade $50, Earn $75! with code WCPREDICTS, valid in 49 states + D.C. (per the partner's offer terms, checked October 14, 2026). The $75 comes as three $25 installments: the first within 24 hours of qualifying, and the second and third only if the previous $25 was fully used on positions priced at $0.80 or below. Offer terms apply. Our ProphetX review has the detail.
After that comes Kalshi: Trade $25 and Get $25! with code WCPREDICTS, valid in 47 states + D.C. (per the partner's offer terms, checked October 14, 2026). See the Kalshi review, or how it compares with Polymarket US in Kalshi vs Polymarket.
ProphetX's minimum age is 18, or the local age of majority if higher. Kalshi's is 18. We recommend 21+. Trade only what you can afford to lose.
Sources
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission news feed: titles and dates of releases 9309-26, 9310-26 and 9302-26 (checked October 13, 2026)
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission, interim final rule text and proposed rule text, Further Definition of "Swap": Inclusions (checked October 13, 2026)
- Federal Register, Event Contracts; Withdrawal of Proposed Regulatory Action, Prediction Markets (91 FR 12516), Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations (91 FR 35806) and Data Reporting Requirements for Certain Event Contracts (91 FR 40102) (checked October 13, 2026)
- Federal Register, Commodity Futures Trading Commission documents: neither October 9 document published or on public inspection (checked October 13, 2026)
- Supreme Court of the United States, docket No. 26-299, docket No. 26-338, docket No. 26-344 (checked October 13, 2026)
- Nevada Gaming Control Board, release of July 24, 2026; Washington State Attorney General, release of August 13, 2026 (checked October 13, 2026)
- Press, for facts we could not open at a court or regulator: The Block on the Michigan injunction, inGame on the Massachusetts appeal, Covers on the Ohio notices, DeFi Rate on the Sixth Circuit ruling (checked October 13, 2026)
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission, registry of designated contract markets: Kalshi, QCX LLC d/b/a Polymarket US and North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc.; OG Help Center, Introducing OG.com U.S., which says OG's contracts are offered by North American Derivatives Exchange (checked October 13, 2026)
- Connecticut, Office of the Governor, Governor Lamont Announces New Actions Against Illegal Prediction Markets Offering Sports Wagers in Connecticut (September 10, 2026) (checked October 13, 2026)
- ProphetX Help Center: Sign-Up Bonus: How It Works, and ProphetX's New Market Participant Bonus Program (both edited October 6, 2026), for the installment terms of the ProphetX offer (checked October 13, 2026)
- Earlier CFTC releases behind the timeline, verified on cftc.gov by our research desk during the October 2026 re-check: 9179-26, 9194-26, 9206-26, 9249-26, 9261-26, 9273-26, 9278-26, 9281-26, 9282-26, and the CFTC registers for ProphetX LLC and Ludlow Exchange, LLC
Frequently asked questions
Has the CFTC finalized new prediction market rules?
One, in part. On October 9, 2026 the CFTC issued an interim final rule saying sportsbook wagers and casino games are not "swaps". It takes effect when it is published in the Federal Register, which had not happened as of October 13, 2026. The rules written for prediction markets themselves, including a second October 9 document and two June 2026 proposals, are still proposals.
What does the CFTC interim final rule of October 9, 2026 say?
It adds a paragraph to the definition of "swap" in CFTC Regulation 1.3 that excludes "casino-style gambling products": wagers taken by licensed sportsbooks, casino games and other licensed games of chance. The exclusion applies only when the operator acts within its state or tribal license, the wager is regulated as gambling under that law, and it is not traded on an exchange. Those products stay with state and tribal regulators. The rule is effective on publication in the Federal Register, with comments open for 30 days after that.
Are sports event contracts swaps under CFTC rules?
The CFTC says many event contracts already fall under the swap definition, and on October 9, 2026 it proposed to write that into its rules by listing event contracts on sports, politics, culture and weather as swaps. That is a proposal, not a final rule, and federal appeals courts have disagreed on the question.
What did the CFTC say about American odds?
On August 7, 2026 CFTC staff said that showing event-contract prices in the American odds format is likely to mislead market participants. This site shows prices only in cents or as a probability.
Which exchanges are CFTC-designated?
ProphetX LLC has been a CFTC-designated contract market since June 11, 2026, and Ludlow Exchange, LLC, which runs Novig, since June 16, 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket US (QCX LLC) are designated contract markets too. OG's contracts are offered by North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. (Nadex).
Does a CFTC rule decide whether I can trade sports contracts in my state?
Not on its own today. Courts are deciding that state by state, and three Supreme Court petitions are pending with responses due on November 9, 13 and 16, 2026. Kalshi's sports contracts are blocked by court order in Nevada, Michigan and Washington.
21+ · T&Cs apply · Terms
New users only. T&Cs apply. ProphetX's minimum age is 18 (or the local age of majority if higher); we recommend 21+. Not available in Nevada. Trading involves risk.
